Economic Forecasters Share Optimistic Outlook for 2026

Economic Forecasters Share Optimistic Outlook for 2026

Those surveyed again expect strong business performance in 2026, anticipate benefiting from CNY’s economic growth trajectory 

SYRACUSE, NY – CenterState CEO hosted its popular Economic Forecast event to share insights into the region’s economic climate from the perspective of regional business leaders and economic experts. 

The event’s keynote speaker, Luke Tilley, chief economist for Wilmington Trust Investment Advisors, Inc., provided a national economic perspective with a presentation of Wilmington’s 2026 Capital Markets Forecast. His remarks included a window into the economic experiments occurring today, such as the impacts of tariffs; the shrinking of the labor force, demographics, immigration policy and artificial intelligence; and the U.S. debt trajectory.

“We see the U.S. economy entering 2026 in decent shape, but firms and consumers are navigating a quickly-changing business environment through federal policies that we have dubbed ‘Economic Experimentation,’” said Tilley. “Though the experiments can create challenges, they also offer investment opportunities in areas that are most likely to benefit. While businesses have been reluctant to hire and lay out capital expenditures because of tariffs and uncertainty, we expect the labor market and job growth to eventually pick back up, which will help asset markets.”

Tilley's assessment of national economic trends offered important and relevant context for understanding the forces that are influencing the Central New York region's trajectory as the event marks the release of the 2026 Economic Forecast for Central New York. 

The report includes the insight and projections of CenterState CEO members and business leaders from across industry sectors, with perspectives on company growth, employment trends and expected impacts on their own businesses and the region’s economy from major initiatives and investments taking place in the region.

“Forecasters again expressed strong optimism about their own business outlook and the strength of the regional economy. They expect solid performance, continued hiring and are investing to meet customer demand and new markets. They’re bullish on Central New York’s 2026 economy, even as they acknowledge real uncertainties tied to the challenges Luke outlined,” said Ben Sio, SVP of Strategy, Policy and Planning and chief of staff at CenterState CEO. “Micron’s historic groundbreaking, one of the largest projects in U.S. history, helps address those concerns and signals extraordinary momentum. Central New York is also outperforming the rest of New York State for the first time in more than two decades. To sustain this progress, we must ensure small and mid sized businesses can grow, compete, and keep pace so more people and communities benefit from the opportunities ahead.”

Through a survey conducted in fall 2025 by third-party research firm Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc., forecasters reflected on the growth they experienced in 2025 and shared their predictions for 2026.

Of those surveyed, 77% have a positive economic outlook for the Central New York region in 2026.

Forecasters anticipate growth in 2026 in sales, revenue, products/services, job growth and investments, although the level of growth saw a slight decline as compared to 2025’s projections in some categories. Additionally, 64% of respondents expect the performance of their own business in 2026 will be “above average” or “excellent."

Of those surveyed:

•    68% expect sales or revenues to increase in 2026, down 9% from last year.
•    59% expect an increase in jobs and hiring in 2026, down 4% from last year.
•    60% expect to expand products and services this year, down 4% from last year.
•    53% expect to increase capital investments this year, up 8% from last year.
•    74% stated innovation and technology will positively impact their business in 2026.

This year, Forecasters were asked about their confidence in the region’s path toward becoming a technology-focused hub of innovation, advanced manufacturing and entrepreneurialism, and the anticipated impact from that growth. Of them, 64%, are moderately or extremely confident in this transformation, with 74% stating that the potential for follow-on growth and investment is the growing tech economy’s greatest opportunity for Central New York.. Additionally, 84% say they see themselves as beneficiaries of this anticipated growth of Central New York’s technology economy, up 13% from last year.

According to respondents, leading market opportunities in the year ahead are driven by growth in semiconductor manufacturing and the related supply chain, new population to the area, new investments in infrastructure, and the opportunity for small business growth.

Survey respondents named the top three most prominent economic factors impacting Central New York businesses in 2026 as: federal policy or regulatory requirements/changes; U.S. trade policy (e.g., tariff policy); and employee benefits and costs. Inflation, availability of skilled labor, housing availability and affordability, and the impact of artificial intelligence were routinely mentioned in responses as additional challenges in the year ahead.

New this year, the event also included a conversation with Amy Liu, Nonresident Senior Fellow with the Brookings Institution, on the region’s new growth trajectory and the interventions that are needed to solve challenges and maximize opportunity.  
 
Liu brings nearly three decades of experience as both a scholar and executive committed to improving governance and public policies at the local, national and global levels, along with a depth of knowledge of the Central New York region.

“Amid so much future uncertainty, one thing is certain: the strong civic collaboration and trust in Central New York have made this semiconductor moment possible, and that same asset will provide the conditions for success going forward," said Liu. "This region has demonstrated it can adapt and rise. With continued business and community engagement -- and CenterState CEO's partnership -- there is strong reason to be optimistic about Central New York's future."

“Amy’s participation in this event was a full-circle moment for many of us who have long been committed to transforming Central New York’s economy,” said Robert Simpson, president and CEO of CenterState CEO. “With the early support of the Brookings Institution, we built a data-driven foundation that continues to guide our collaborative efforts. Her perspective reinforces why our focus on critical challenges like energy, housing and inclusive growth is more important than ever.”